1.

Quite a dichotomy we have with our Federal Reserve; The Fed is behind the inflation curve, the most it’s been since the post WWII era of 1951. So tightening makes sense correct? But wait, US economic growth is/has been decelerating, so The Fed’s “remedy” is to tighten/raise rates into economic softness? Historically, that’s a big mistake. The Fed has no solutions. I love this saying and it so accurately applies; “if all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail.”

2.

OpenTable, the restaurant reservations app, put out the following head-scratching comparison: January 2022 vs. January 2019 reservation difference:
Miami: +14%
Las Vegas: +1%
Denver: -26%
LA: -41%
DC: -59%
Manhattan: -64%
San Francisco: -66%
Cambridge, MA -75%
Restaurants are the heart and soul of every city and we are destroying them with mandates. It’s just so strange how we no longer hear about the deficits in cities and states during low commerce periods…

3.

US GDP growth was only 1.9% when you look at Real Final Sales minus inventories. The economy is weakening and growth after inflation is negative. Interest rates are having a short-term uptick. Fixed annuity rates are approaching 3% and look attractive compared to everything else. Take advantage while you can. Higher interest rates may be a casualty soon. Give NestEgg a call for advice.

4.

In some US states, seniors can get yields at 3% for 5 years with an A rated company. Some day soon, quality of company may become important once again. It’s funny how we humans will place safety and security on the back-burner in bullish times. This is a cliché but it often becomes profound, “Guarantees/safety doesn’t matter; until it’s all that matters.”

5.

Tom Brady is retiring and all I can think about is the 28-3 Super Bowl vs Atlanta. The way that game unfolded was a work of art. I was watching in New Hampshire with my two daughters. At 28-3, my youngest said, “they still have a chance. They can come back.” I scoffed at her with a look of disbelief, but she happened to be correct. The comeback began to unfold shortly thereafter. I still have a hard time wrapping my brain around the comeback. But Tom Brady could do anything. And winning a Super Bowl while trailing 28-3 with 17 minutes left was a damn miracle. My girls and I played in the snow at games end, all still in a state of shock. That’s my favorite NFL moment. Thank you Tom.